I have to write fast because the announcement is out in 10 minutes... :)
I yesterday had a short signal in GBPJPY at 128.691, which has cost money today and it looks like I will have a long signal again later today... This is a classical example of the whip-saw you need to live with when following a systematic model. On the bright side, I placed a buy-order in USDJPY overnight at 82.02 (stop 81.50 and target 82.95) which was hit. I decided to close that one hour ago at 82.68... I feel that markets has traded on stronger dollar into the FOMC-meeting this evening, and eventhough I am in that camp, I could easily see the market be a bit dissapointed and remove their longs. It is a relative war in the currency-markets, and all sovereigns want to have the weakest currency... So I believe Bernanke will acknowledge the strong marcro-development in US, but also try to play down the expectations.
We shall see in 3 minutes...
Discr.
Long USDJPY
Algo.
Short EURUSD
Short AUDCAD
Long USDSEK
Long USDJPY
Short GBPJPY
P/L down 100 dollar to 3950...
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
Sunday, 11 March 2012
Very lucky...!
Hello!
I hope you all have enjoyed a nice weekend, I have atleast... :) What a wonderful weather (and the dark and cold days feels far away for the moment)!
If you have have been following my positions going into Friday you could have guessed that it was a very lucky day for me. I managed to increased my account with USD 700, and now stand at a new all-time-high of USD 4043, I had never thought that a month ago. Up 106% on my initial deposit of 1960 USD, however, I know that it will come dark days as well so there is no need to get carried away. Marketwise, the last week when focusing on FX has been on stronger USD and weaker JPY, I believe that theme could continue (especially the weakning JPY). Which has been good for the discrenationary portfolio, the 3*USDJPY has been reduced to only 1*USDJPY after the targets of 81.46 and 82.50 was hit. The last position is a streategically long position, I will revise it if USDJPY hits 85. I will also try to find more positions to add if either we have a set-back in USDJPY, or adding other jpy-shorts. More to come during the week.
Short recap:
Discr.
Long 1*USDJPY
Algo
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Short EURUSD
Long USDSEK
Short AUDCAD
Until later dear trading-friends!
I hope you all have enjoyed a nice weekend, I have atleast... :) What a wonderful weather (and the dark and cold days feels far away for the moment)!
If you have have been following my positions going into Friday you could have guessed that it was a very lucky day for me. I managed to increased my account with USD 700, and now stand at a new all-time-high of USD 4043, I had never thought that a month ago. Up 106% on my initial deposit of 1960 USD, however, I know that it will come dark days as well so there is no need to get carried away. Marketwise, the last week when focusing on FX has been on stronger USD and weaker JPY, I believe that theme could continue (especially the weakning JPY). Which has been good for the discrenationary portfolio, the 3*USDJPY has been reduced to only 1*USDJPY after the targets of 81.46 and 82.50 was hit. The last position is a streategically long position, I will revise it if USDJPY hits 85. I will also try to find more positions to add if either we have a set-back in USDJPY, or adding other jpy-shorts. More to come during the week.
Short recap:
Discr.
Long 1*USDJPY
Algo
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Short EURUSD
Long USDSEK
Short AUDCAD
Until later dear trading-friends!
Thursday, 8 March 2012
Position update
So... I hit my target on my latest position in USDJPY (81.46)...
And I have had a lots of new signals, leaving me with the following in the algo-portfolio =>
Long GBPJPY at 129.14, closed short with a small profit and new stop at 126.22...
Long USDJPY at 81.60, stop at 80.10
Long USDSEK at 6,6999, leaving me with around 1% of profit on the short position from yesterday, new stop at 6.56
Since before, short AUDCAD and short EURUSD
Leaves me with a quite balanced portfolio in terms of risk on/risk off...
Discretionary
After the closed profit in USDJPY... Well... Still long 2*USDJPY, first target 82.50... :)
And I have had a lots of new signals, leaving me with the following in the algo-portfolio =>
Long GBPJPY at 129.14, closed short with a small profit and new stop at 126.22...
Long USDJPY at 81.60, stop at 80.10
Long USDSEK at 6,6999, leaving me with around 1% of profit on the short position from yesterday, new stop at 6.56
Since before, short AUDCAD and short EURUSD
Leaves me with a quite balanced portfolio in terms of risk on/risk off...
Discretionary
After the closed profit in USDJPY... Well... Still long 2*USDJPY, first target 82.50... :)
Wednesday, 7 March 2012
First model fully implemented
Quick update... I feel my update-frequency is a bit too high to be able to keep up with it in the long run, so I will try to limit myself to maximum three updates per week.
I just decided to take on a short position in USDSEK, the original plan was to wait for a change in signal before I entered into a position in SEK, however, given the strong performance in USDSEK lately I felt this could be a good oppurtunity to implement the last algo-signal from a risk-reward point of view. So, now the first model is fully implemented... :) I will spend some time this weekend on thinking of how I will implement my next model (trend-following) and also try to finish my development of a carry-trading model I have been working on for a long time now. I want to trade some emerging-markets currencies now...!
Algo =>
Short USDSEK at 6,7872 (stop 6,925)
Short EURUSD
Short GBPJPY
Potentially short AUDCAD
Discrenationary
Long 3*USDJPY
(it requires a lot of patience to sit and wait for the targets to be hit...)
Nice W/E!
I just decided to take on a short position in USDSEK, the original plan was to wait for a change in signal before I entered into a position in SEK, however, given the strong performance in USDSEK lately I felt this could be a good oppurtunity to implement the last algo-signal from a risk-reward point of view. So, now the first model is fully implemented... :) I will spend some time this weekend on thinking of how I will implement my next model (trend-following) and also try to finish my development of a carry-trading model I have been working on for a long time now. I want to trade some emerging-markets currencies now...!
Algo =>
Short USDSEK at 6,7872 (stop 6,925)
Short EURUSD
Short GBPJPY
Potentially short AUDCAD
Discrenationary
Long 3*USDJPY
(it requires a lot of patience to sit and wait for the targets to be hit...)
Nice W/E!
Tuesday, 6 March 2012
Worst drop for risky assets in three months
Hi,
so today I got the first real test of my algo-portfolio... I haven't told you in detail how it works, but in general the idea is that it will perform strongly when traditional risky assets decline. Like today. Of course, nothing is for sure, but that should atleast work as a rule of thumb. But first a short reflection of todays markets.
In my view this could be a healthy set-back (maybe -4% on Eurostoxx is not that healthy...), since the markets needs to digest the massive performance seen so far year-to-date in risky assets, not to forget the massive liquidity injection seen from the LTRO I and II. The profit taking was really extensive, the drop in gold was definitely a sign of investors being massively long in many different assets. Even the yen got hit hard with stops being triggered all the way down to around 80.60. The reasons mentioned in markets today were for instance the Greece story that the CDS could be triggered if less than 75% participate in the "voluntary" bond-deal, and rumours are that less than 70% will participate, secondly the story of lower growth in China also hit the screens (again) and in combination with worsening macro-data lately. This factors in combination with a strong run the first two months probably scared investors to take profits. I am not sure if this is the start of a deeper set-back, but I prefer to play if from to the long side, hoping this is a good oppurtunity to add to positions. So, I bought one more unit of USDJPY at 80.76 for a quick punt, as it seems like the stops are done for the day, I still think it is in a uptrend. I will have a tight stop at 80.40, targeting 81.45.
=> Discretionary
Long 3*USDJPY
(Todays price actions implies that I am small down in this portfolio)
=> Algo
I had to take my first stop today, as the long position in AUDCAD was stopped out at 1.0560. :(
However, given the strong performance in being short GBPJPY and EURUSD means that I currently stands at a new high in the total portfolio, USD 3360...! Which answers my first statement - my model performed strongly when risky assets declined.
Short GBPJPY
Short EURUSD
(tilted to risk-off, so will probably suffer if risk-appetite comes back into markets)
so today I got the first real test of my algo-portfolio... I haven't told you in detail how it works, but in general the idea is that it will perform strongly when traditional risky assets decline. Like today. Of course, nothing is for sure, but that should atleast work as a rule of thumb. But first a short reflection of todays markets.
In my view this could be a healthy set-back (maybe -4% on Eurostoxx is not that healthy...), since the markets needs to digest the massive performance seen so far year-to-date in risky assets, not to forget the massive liquidity injection seen from the LTRO I and II. The profit taking was really extensive, the drop in gold was definitely a sign of investors being massively long in many different assets. Even the yen got hit hard with stops being triggered all the way down to around 80.60. The reasons mentioned in markets today were for instance the Greece story that the CDS could be triggered if less than 75% participate in the "voluntary" bond-deal, and rumours are that less than 70% will participate, secondly the story of lower growth in China also hit the screens (again) and in combination with worsening macro-data lately. This factors in combination with a strong run the first two months probably scared investors to take profits. I am not sure if this is the start of a deeper set-back, but I prefer to play if from to the long side, hoping this is a good oppurtunity to add to positions. So, I bought one more unit of USDJPY at 80.76 for a quick punt, as it seems like the stops are done for the day, I still think it is in a uptrend. I will have a tight stop at 80.40, targeting 81.45.
=> Discretionary
Long 3*USDJPY
(Todays price actions implies that I am small down in this portfolio)
=> Algo
I had to take my first stop today, as the long position in AUDCAD was stopped out at 1.0560. :(
However, given the strong performance in being short GBPJPY and EURUSD means that I currently stands at a new high in the total portfolio, USD 3360...! Which answers my first statement - my model performed strongly when risky assets declined.
Short GBPJPY
Short EURUSD
(tilted to risk-off, so will probably suffer if risk-appetite comes back into markets)
Sunday, 4 March 2012
Spring is in the air...!
Hi...!
What a wonderful weather this weekend... It feels much better to go outside when we are heading towards summer instead of winter.
So, I still haven't had time to produce some graphs on my two diffenrent portfolios (algo and discretionary), but have patience, it will come. As a positive note, it is fun to log in to my account and see that it value corresponds to a new all-time-high... It currently stands at 3250$, and remembering it was only threee weeks ago it was at 1960$. However, as I stated before, my intial though has always been to start with 5000$. I actually been asked a couple of times lately if I could invest other peoples money. I have been a bit sceptical so far, but after having thought it through more carufully maybe it could be a good idea to take in others' money as well. It will make the competition even more serious since I will have a responsibility to the ones investing, just as I do at my work nowadays. If I decide to say yes I will keep the numbers of investors very limited so that focus remain on the competition and not on admin.
I have had a shift of signal (once again) in the algo-portfolio, I will square my position in USDJPY and go short GBPJPY (currently long) as soon as the markets open. That leaves me with the following positions after execution in the algo-portfolio:
Long AUDCAD
Short EURUSD
Short GBPJPY
The discretionary portfolio has been boosted by the strong performance in USDJPY, I am so far pleased with the decision to double the position, but the war is far from over... :)
Long 2*USDJPY
Have a nice week
What a wonderful weather this weekend... It feels much better to go outside when we are heading towards summer instead of winter.
So, I still haven't had time to produce some graphs on my two diffenrent portfolios (algo and discretionary), but have patience, it will come. As a positive note, it is fun to log in to my account and see that it value corresponds to a new all-time-high... It currently stands at 3250$, and remembering it was only threee weeks ago it was at 1960$. However, as I stated before, my intial though has always been to start with 5000$. I actually been asked a couple of times lately if I could invest other peoples money. I have been a bit sceptical so far, but after having thought it through more carufully maybe it could be a good idea to take in others' money as well. It will make the competition even more serious since I will have a responsibility to the ones investing, just as I do at my work nowadays. If I decide to say yes I will keep the numbers of investors very limited so that focus remain on the competition and not on admin.
I have had a shift of signal (once again) in the algo-portfolio, I will square my position in USDJPY and go short GBPJPY (currently long) as soon as the markets open. That leaves me with the following positions after execution in the algo-portfolio:
Long AUDCAD
Short EURUSD
Short GBPJPY
The discretionary portfolio has been boosted by the strong performance in USDJPY, I am so far pleased with the decision to double the position, but the war is far from over... :)
Long 2*USDJPY
Have a nice week
Thursday, 1 March 2012
Short JPY
Just a quick update...
I just had two buy-signals genereated for my algo-account, both against the yen... GBPJPY went from short to long at 129.346 (stop at 127.30) and USDJPY went from square to long at 81.08 (stop at 80)...
Hmmm... I believe in the positions, but I also realize that I carry a huge risk being such heavy tilted against a short JPY. However, as I stated before => I will always follow my signals, no matter what.
Have a nice W/E!
I just had two buy-signals genereated for my algo-account, both against the yen... GBPJPY went from short to long at 129.346 (stop at 127.30) and USDJPY went from square to long at 81.08 (stop at 80)...
Hmmm... I believe in the positions, but I also realize that I carry a huge risk being such heavy tilted against a short JPY. However, as I stated before => I will always follow my signals, no matter what.
Have a nice W/E!
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