Hi,
so the big event of the month... The second unlimited 3-yr LTRO ended with a take-up of EUR 530bn (800 banks participating), estimates of much that was new money points to around EUR 300bn... EUR 300bn that in my view needs to be invested in something... I believe that amount is big enough to be supportive for risky assets, and all people that expects a bigger decline will probably be dissapointed. The second interesting thing to note from today was Bernankes speech where he stated that Unemployment had come down faster than he believed could be explained by fundamentals and also hinting that QE3 is not on the table... All in all, this should be bearish for EURUSD and bullish for USDJPY (USD positive)...
So my call for a lower EURUSD was right, but my timing and trade management was not good enough since I was stopped out on that trade on the discretionary book... Annoying, but I will always be prudent and never leave a trade without a stop. However, it seems like it was a good decision to also take on the short EURUSD on the algo book eventhough I was waiting for a change of signal.
USDJPY has in my view traded perfect from a technical view, first taking out a new high, then it retraced to just above 80, and is now hopefully on its way to extending to new highs. So, since that is my view, I decided to double my position at 81.21 with a stop 80.40 and going for 82.5 as a target.
Position overview
Discretionary
Long USDJPY*2
Algo
Short EURUSD
Long AUDCAD
Short GBPJPY
The portfolio has lost money the last days and now stands at USD 2890...
Wednesday 29 February 2012
Monday 27 February 2012
Risky assets slightly down heading into the final LTRO
Hi...
Markets seems quiet before the big event this month, the LTRO on Friday... A lot of speculation of what the potential take-up of ECB's "free money" will be, with estimates ranging from EUR 250-1250bn... I think we will have a take-up of similiar/slightly lower take up than last time (approx. EUR 500bn last time), potentially sending risky assets little lower as the expected liquidity injection could be a dissapointment. I would prefer to be short EURUSD in that kind of environment... That's why I early this morning decided to not wait for a change of signal in EURUSD any longer in the algo portfolio (there has been a negative signal the whole time since I started this blog) and went short the cross as 1.3448 (stop at 1.3660)... I am also considering to add it on the discretionary portfolio as a little more short-term play... And yes, I just did... :)
Short EURUSD at 1.3405 (stop at 1.3460, and a target at 1.3306)... A short classic punt going for the reversal into month-end.
So, discretionaty portfolio:
Long USDJPY
Short EURUSD
Algo portfolio
The short-signal in GBPJPY was executed in two pieces, first I squared the position at very good levels (1.2930) before I went to the bed, the short position was executed at a less good level (128.755, stop att 130.755).
Just squared my long USDJPY at 80.47 (profit of almost a full figure) with a neutral reading on that currency at this stage.
Leaving the portfolio with,
Short GBPJPY
Short EURUSD
Long AUDCAD
(only waiting for USDSEK to change signal before the algo portfolio is fully implemented)
P/L-wise... A new high, 3155 USD. :)
Markets seems quiet before the big event this month, the LTRO on Friday... A lot of speculation of what the potential take-up of ECB's "free money" will be, with estimates ranging from EUR 250-1250bn... I think we will have a take-up of similiar/slightly lower take up than last time (approx. EUR 500bn last time), potentially sending risky assets little lower as the expected liquidity injection could be a dissapointment. I would prefer to be short EURUSD in that kind of environment... That's why I early this morning decided to not wait for a change of signal in EURUSD any longer in the algo portfolio (there has been a negative signal the whole time since I started this blog) and went short the cross as 1.3448 (stop at 1.3660)... I am also considering to add it on the discretionary portfolio as a little more short-term play... And yes, I just did... :)
Short EURUSD at 1.3405 (stop at 1.3460, and a target at 1.3306)... A short classic punt going for the reversal into month-end.
So, discretionaty portfolio:
Long USDJPY
Short EURUSD
Algo portfolio
The short-signal in GBPJPY was executed in two pieces, first I squared the position at very good levels (1.2930) before I went to the bed, the short position was executed at a less good level (128.755, stop att 130.755).
Just squared my long USDJPY at 80.47 (profit of almost a full figure) with a neutral reading on that currency at this stage.
Leaving the portfolio with,
Short GBPJPY
Short EURUSD
Long AUDCAD
(only waiting for USDSEK to change signal before the algo portfolio is fully implemented)
P/L-wise... A new high, 3155 USD. :)
Sunday 26 February 2012
52% return...
A lot of action in the FX-markets while I have been away, where the overall JPY-weakness sticks out (and has been really good for my positions)... :)
First of all, I was stopped out on my long CadChf early in the week at 0.9115 (50 ticks loss on the discretionary book after having moved up my initial stoploss), but at the same time I have so far been lucky that I shifted out of my long EURCHF into a long USDJPY instead...
The last weeks developments for a weaker JPY has been very good for both my portfolios, where the discretionary is long USDJPY (from 79.70) and the algo long GBPJPY (123.04) and USDJPY (79.55)... USDJPY closed at 81.20 and GBPJPY at 129.12 (up roughly 5% on the that trade) have seen my initial 1960 $ deposit growing into 2982 $ (52% to be exact)... However, one should remember that I take much higher bets than I would ever do when investing some others money and to be honest, my thought have always been to deposit 5000 $... But I thought I would start out with 2000 $ (they deduct 40 $ automatically due to fees) to get some experience with my new broker. So, to be fair, the portfolios are so far up 20%. But, I always take every day as a new day, so even if I am off to a good start, the positive gains can quickly turn to negative, so prudence is as always very important for me.
How is the situation in the competition?
The algo is clearly in the lead, benefitting from the long USDJPY and GBPJPY...
I still need to figure out a fair way of splitting up the results (as % per trade, or as % of a portfolio, or as absolute sum)... More to come on this during the week.
Status on active trades:
Discretionary:
Long USDJPY (from 79.70)
Algo:
Long GBPJPY (123.04)
Long USDJPY (79.55)
Long AUDCAD (1.06883)
However, my model has given a sellsignal on GBPJPY so a huge profit will probably be realized when I execute it tomorrow and my overall risk will be somewhat reduced as I reduce the short JPY-exposure. Still awaits signal in USDSEK and EURUSD.
Have a nice week!
First of all, I was stopped out on my long CadChf early in the week at 0.9115 (50 ticks loss on the discretionary book after having moved up my initial stoploss), but at the same time I have so far been lucky that I shifted out of my long EURCHF into a long USDJPY instead...
The last weeks developments for a weaker JPY has been very good for both my portfolios, where the discretionary is long USDJPY (from 79.70) and the algo long GBPJPY (123.04) and USDJPY (79.55)... USDJPY closed at 81.20 and GBPJPY at 129.12 (up roughly 5% on the that trade) have seen my initial 1960 $ deposit growing into 2982 $ (52% to be exact)... However, one should remember that I take much higher bets than I would ever do when investing some others money and to be honest, my thought have always been to deposit 5000 $... But I thought I would start out with 2000 $ (they deduct 40 $ automatically due to fees) to get some experience with my new broker. So, to be fair, the portfolios are so far up 20%. But, I always take every day as a new day, so even if I am off to a good start, the positive gains can quickly turn to negative, so prudence is as always very important for me.
How is the situation in the competition?
The algo is clearly in the lead, benefitting from the long USDJPY and GBPJPY...
I still need to figure out a fair way of splitting up the results (as % per trade, or as % of a portfolio, or as absolute sum)... More to come on this during the week.
Status on active trades:
Discretionary:
Long USDJPY (from 79.70)
Algo:
Long GBPJPY (123.04)
Long USDJPY (79.55)
Long AUDCAD (1.06883)
However, my model has given a sellsignal on GBPJPY so a huge profit will probably be realized when I execute it tomorrow and my overall risk will be somewhat reduced as I reduce the short JPY-exposure. Still awaits signal in USDSEK and EURUSD.
Have a nice week!
Tuesday 21 February 2012
Off to London
Hi,
just wanted to say that activity will be low the coming days since I will go to London on a conference...
But:
The algo portfolio just added another position, long USDJPY at 79.70 (stop at 78.70)... It could easily be a "false" signal, but I will never overrule my signals in this competition... And honestly, it actually feels good to be long USDJPY eventhough the price is the high of the lastest months. :)
Happy trading
Ps. the portfolios have given back some return the latest 24 hours on the back of the weaker AUDCHF and CADCHF Ds.
just wanted to say that activity will be low the coming days since I will go to London on a conference...
But:
The algo portfolio just added another position, long USDJPY at 79.70 (stop at 78.70)... It could easily be a "false" signal, but I will never overrule my signals in this competition... And honestly, it actually feels good to be long USDJPY eventhough the price is the high of the lastest months. :)
Happy trading
Ps. the portfolios have given back some return the latest 24 hours on the back of the weaker AUDCHF and CADCHF Ds.
Sunday 19 February 2012
Recap...
Hi,
it has been a busy week outside work with a birthday party for 75 persons yesterday... Lot's of fun.
Markets seems resilient at the moment with a very strong start to the year for risky assets... I continue to keep my call from the start of the year that European equities (Eurostoxx) will rise around 30% this year, atleast the direction is right so far... What will this mean for FX? Well, EM-currencies should continue to strengthen and also the high-yielders within G10. I also (as always) think that JPY and CHF will weaken...
It has been a strong start to the algo portfolio, where I was lucky to get long GBPJPY at 123 before it traded up... Last week was charactarized by changing position three times in both GBPJPY and AUDCAD before I finally got long both of them. I still awaits signal in USDJPY, USDSEK and EURUSD, where the USDJPY is really close to give a buysignal.
Algo status:
Long GBPJPY at 123.03 (stop at 121)
Long AUDCAD at 1.06884 (stop at 1.05683)
Discr. status:
Changed out from a long EURCHF with a small loss (15 pips) and into a long USDJPY since that confirmed a new top (break of 79.55), got long at 79.54 (stop at 77.80). Of course, I am risking to buy it at the very high, but I like this sort of trading - "buy high, sell higher"...So, I am now exposed to a weaker CHF and JPY...
Long USDJPY 79.55
Long CADCHF (stop moved to 0.911)
Have a nice week!
it has been a busy week outside work with a birthday party for 75 persons yesterday... Lot's of fun.
Markets seems resilient at the moment with a very strong start to the year for risky assets... I continue to keep my call from the start of the year that European equities (Eurostoxx) will rise around 30% this year, atleast the direction is right so far... What will this mean for FX? Well, EM-currencies should continue to strengthen and also the high-yielders within G10. I also (as always) think that JPY and CHF will weaken...
It has been a strong start to the algo portfolio, where I was lucky to get long GBPJPY at 123 before it traded up... Last week was charactarized by changing position three times in both GBPJPY and AUDCAD before I finally got long both of them. I still awaits signal in USDJPY, USDSEK and EURUSD, where the USDJPY is really close to give a buysignal.
Algo status:
Long GBPJPY at 123.03 (stop at 121)
Long AUDCAD at 1.06884 (stop at 1.05683)
Discr. status:
Changed out from a long EURCHF with a small loss (15 pips) and into a long USDJPY since that confirmed a new top (break of 79.55), got long at 79.54 (stop at 77.80). Of course, I am risking to buy it at the very high, but I like this sort of trading - "buy high, sell higher"...So, I am now exposed to a weaker CHF and JPY...
Long USDJPY 79.55
Long CADCHF (stop moved to 0.911)
Have a nice week!
Wednesday 15 February 2012
General update
Hi...!
The total portfolio is actually off to a quite good start on the back of the strong performance in CadChf. I will probably move up my stop if it trades up around 50 pips more.
I realized that it will be impossible for me to post all my signals here since they are generated on a daily basis, so I will only make you aware of the most interesting ones during weekdays and then make a complete update once a week (during w/e's) on all trades so I can be transparent against you.
I will also spend a blog update quite soon on the broader priciples behind my models...
All the best!
Ps. still long CadChf and EurChf on the discretionary and short GbpJpy and AudCad (after som whip-saw) Ds.
The total portfolio is actually off to a quite good start on the back of the strong performance in CadChf. I will probably move up my stop if it trades up around 50 pips more.
I realized that it will be impossible for me to post all my signals here since they are generated on a daily basis, so I will only make you aware of the most interesting ones during weekdays and then make a complete update once a week (during w/e's) on all trades so I can be transparent against you.
I will also spend a blog update quite soon on the broader priciples behind my models...
All the best!
Ps. still long CadChf and EurChf on the discretionary and short GbpJpy and AudCad (after som whip-saw) Ds.
Sunday 12 February 2012
First algo signals!
Hi folks... I hope you enjoyed your w/e!
The discretionary portfolio is down small, CadChf have started to trade a bit weak, but I stick to my stop.
The most interesting to note are the two signals generated by my macro model
- Short AudCad (1,07065, stop at 1,083)
- Short GbpJpy (122,585, stop at 124,7)
Very interesting... Especially AudCad is interesting from a mean-reversion point of view since that cross trades at an extreme level.
Happy hunting!
The discretionary portfolio is down small, CadChf have started to trade a bit weak, but I stick to my stop.
The most interesting to note are the two signals generated by my macro model
- Short AudCad (1,07065, stop at 1,083)
- Short GbpJpy (122,585, stop at 124,7)
Very interesting... Especially AudCad is interesting from a mean-reversion point of view since that cross trades at an extreme level.
Happy hunting!
Thursday 9 February 2012
ECB-day...
Always one of the most important days of the month, and mr. Draghi delivered just as expected today - no further cuts and no additional measures. I think the Q&A was slightly tilted to the hawkish side. But all-in-all I think this should continue to be a good environment for risky assets, also remebering that the US intial jobless claims continued to come in at a very low level today - further jobcreation in US.
No new positions in the discretionary portfolio (Long EurChf and CadChf)... One I am looking at is the "trader's death cross"; UsdJpy, I am looking to go long that cross, but first I need confirmation that yields in US starts to move upwards and secondly I need UsdJpy to take out its recent high confirming a trend change.
Algos:
Still no signals...
Over and out
No new positions in the discretionary portfolio (Long EurChf and CadChf)... One I am looking at is the "trader's death cross"; UsdJpy, I am looking to go long that cross, but first I need confirmation that yields in US starts to move upwards and secondly I need UsdJpy to take out its recent high confirming a trend change.
Algos:
Still no signals...
Over and out
Wednesday 8 February 2012
FX competition - Discretionary vs. algo trading
Hi world!
This is my first post... So have patience with me... I will try to update quite frequently... What this blog is all about is my love and dedication for the financial markets, and especially in that aspect - the fascinating world of FX... Where fortunes can be made and lost... Where all flows blends together in a perfect mix of speculators, corporates, retailers, funds etc... What drives all this?! I have an idea, and I am sorry to say that I will keep my version of it with myself... What I will publish here is my attempt to make a fair competion against myself... I will see if I can beat my own algos (based on different fundamentals factors, i.e. macrobased and also some mix of technical analysis) vs. my own discretionary trading which has so far been successful for more than three years... I hope you will find this challenge as exciting as I think.
As a start:
Discretionary:
Long EurChf at 1.2107 (stop at 1.2025) and a target of atleast 1.24 - based in a strong belief that SNB will deliver no matter what
Long CadChf at 0.9169 (stop at 0.9070) - same reason as above, but also in favour of a stronger CAD
are looking to enter into more carryfriendly crosses....
Algos:
None sofar - waiting for my first signals, but will trade both G10 and EM
This is my first post... So have patience with me... I will try to update quite frequently... What this blog is all about is my love and dedication for the financial markets, and especially in that aspect - the fascinating world of FX... Where fortunes can be made and lost... Where all flows blends together in a perfect mix of speculators, corporates, retailers, funds etc... What drives all this?! I have an idea, and I am sorry to say that I will keep my version of it with myself... What I will publish here is my attempt to make a fair competion against myself... I will see if I can beat my own algos (based on different fundamentals factors, i.e. macrobased and also some mix of technical analysis) vs. my own discretionary trading which has so far been successful for more than three years... I hope you will find this challenge as exciting as I think.
As a start:
Discretionary:
Long EurChf at 1.2107 (stop at 1.2025) and a target of atleast 1.24 - based in a strong belief that SNB will deliver no matter what
Long CadChf at 0.9169 (stop at 0.9070) - same reason as above, but also in favour of a stronger CAD
are looking to enter into more carryfriendly crosses....
Algos:
None sofar - waiting for my first signals, but will trade both G10 and EM
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