Wednesday 29 February 2012

ECB - 800 banks as customers

Hi,

so the big event of the month... The second unlimited 3-yr LTRO ended with a take-up of EUR 530bn (800 banks participating), estimates of much that was new money points to around EUR 300bn... EUR 300bn that in my view needs to be invested in something... I believe that amount is big enough to be supportive for risky assets, and all people that expects a bigger decline will probably be dissapointed. The second interesting thing to note from today was Bernankes speech where he stated that Unemployment had come down faster than he believed could be explained by fundamentals and also hinting that QE3 is not on the table... All in all, this should be bearish for EURUSD and bullish for USDJPY (USD positive)...

So my call for a lower EURUSD was right, but my timing and trade management was not good enough since I was stopped out on that trade on the discretionary book... Annoying, but I will always be prudent and never leave a trade without a stop. However, it seems like it was a good decision to also take on the short EURUSD on the algo book eventhough I was waiting for a change of signal.

USDJPY has in  my view traded perfect from a technical view, first taking out a new high, then it retraced to just above 80, and is now hopefully on its way to extending to new highs. So, since that is my view, I decided to double my position at 81.21 with a stop 80.40 and going for 82.5 as a target.

Position overview

Discretionary

Long USDJPY*2

Algo

Short EURUSD
Long AUDCAD
Short GBPJPY

The portfolio has lost money the last days and now stands at USD 2890...

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