Hi!
Fun to see that more and more people starts to follow my blog...!
Short update due to a busy agenda... and prolonged spa-weekend in Germany tomorrow. :)
Discretionary portfolio:
I went short EurUsd as stated in the last update, the timing could have been better, but so far it seems like my stop will survive. The case is still intact so I will leave it as it is.
Short EURUSD 1.3269 (stop 1.3435 and target 1.3030)
In addition, I went long EURCHF (double size) at 1.2060 on the case that I think speculation of intervention will keep it above 1.2040... Stop at 1.2022, target 1.2124 and 1.25
Lastly, I went long USDJPY today at 82.34 with a stop at 81.94 and target 82.90 due to the fact that 82 seems like a strong support, and if we break below I dont wont to stay in the trade. Secondly, fundamentals still support the trade (rates US vs. JPY still in an uptrend) so I think this trade short-term provide decent risk-reward.
Summary:
Short EURUSD
Long 2*EURCHF
Long 2*USDJPY
Algo:
I have had a short signal in USDSEK and GBPJPY since the last update. These were executed at 6.6649 and 131.626 respectively.
Summary:
Short EURUSD
Long USDJPY
Short AUDCAD
Short USDSEK
Short GBPJPY
P/L has moved sidways and now stands at USD 3784
Have a loverly weekend
Ps. Month-end and Qtr-end often provides increased volatility... And remember that the Japanese fiscal year ends tomorrow. Ds.
Thursday, 29 March 2012
Sunday, 25 March 2012
Earnings volatility
Hi!
The last week was a poor one in terms of profit generation (quite the opposite, declining portfolio value). You never know when profits and losses will hit your position, but I have expected quite some volatility, that is just part of the business... :)
If you have followed my positions closely, maybe you noticed that I moved my target in USDJPY a bit higher... In hindsight, that was not especially wise! My orginal plan would have been spot on (target 83.95), instead I saw my profit vaporize and becoming a loss. Since I am not trading while I am at work, this kind of reverse movements will be a part of my daily profits and losses...
Please see below for the updated returns for the last week
Current update:
Discretionary portfolio: USD 650 (down from 841 from the week before)
Algo: USD 1080 (down from 1391)
I have also decided to include two more currency pairs, namely AUDNZD and EURCAD. Hopefully helping diversification, I been a bit too much tilted against USD and JPY, now I have more equal exposure towards JPY, USD, AUD, EUR and CAD.
Discr.
Long USDJPY (stop at 80.40)
Algo.
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Long USDSEK
Short AUDCAD
Short EURUSD
Waiting for change of signals in AUDNZD and EURCAD
Finally, some short comments about my thoughts about the last week... I think it was a bit scary to see the sharp drop in the global manufacturing data, and the last weeks risk-off moves have made investors aware of that eventhough there were a huge liquidity injection, the structural problems are still not solved over a short period of time. So, that is why I will go short EURUSD in the discrenationary portfolio, USD should benefit vs. EUR, and I think the risk-reward looks favorable to the downside.
Have a lovely week!
The last week was a poor one in terms of profit generation (quite the opposite, declining portfolio value). You never know when profits and losses will hit your position, but I have expected quite some volatility, that is just part of the business... :)
If you have followed my positions closely, maybe you noticed that I moved my target in USDJPY a bit higher... In hindsight, that was not especially wise! My orginal plan would have been spot on (target 83.95), instead I saw my profit vaporize and becoming a loss. Since I am not trading while I am at work, this kind of reverse movements will be a part of my daily profits and losses...
Please see below for the updated returns for the last week
Current update:
Discretionary portfolio: USD 650 (down from 841 from the week before)
Algo: USD 1080 (down from 1391)
I have also decided to include two more currency pairs, namely AUDNZD and EURCAD. Hopefully helping diversification, I been a bit too much tilted against USD and JPY, now I have more equal exposure towards JPY, USD, AUD, EUR and CAD.
Discr.
Long USDJPY (stop at 80.40)
Algo.
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Long USDSEK
Short AUDCAD
Short EURUSD
Waiting for change of signals in AUDNZD and EURCAD
Finally, some short comments about my thoughts about the last week... I think it was a bit scary to see the sharp drop in the global manufacturing data, and the last weeks risk-off moves have made investors aware of that eventhough there were a huge liquidity injection, the structural problems are still not solved over a short period of time. So, that is why I will go short EURUSD in the discrenationary portfolio, USD should benefit vs. EUR, and I think the risk-reward looks favorable to the downside.
Have a lovely week!
Tuesday, 20 March 2012
Grinding...
A short update... Risky assets continues to trade very strong, moste equity-indices are up at the high of the year (S&P around 11%) and I think I read it was the fourth strongest start to a year since 1927. The most interesting to note lately are that yields (longer) have finally started to move higher and maybe we can have more classical asset movements again... (i.e. higher equities => higher yields => higher commodities). In terms of FX, no big movements the last days but I believe more firmly that the JPY will continue to depreciate. So, I decided to move up my target to 84.42 instead of 83.95 but keeping my stop at 82.97. I think that we will see a sharpe move upwards if we break through 83.90/84... I decided to skip a position in NOKSEK due to the price-action, it more looks like something that will grind lower. Else, I think the current environment is more or less a grind at the moment and not much is going on.
Discr.
Long 2*USDJPY (first target 84.42/stop 82.97)
Algo.
The short position in USDSEK was closed down with a profit after one day at 6,7189 and was exchanged to a long position (stop 6.55)
=> Short EURUSD
Short AUDCAD (considering taking on this also in the discretionary portfolio)
Long USDSEK
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Account equity as per today: USD 4473
Later FX-friends!
Discr.
Long 2*USDJPY (first target 84.42/stop 82.97)
Algo.
The short position in USDSEK was closed down with a profit after one day at 6,7189 and was exchanged to a long position (stop 6.55)
=> Short EURUSD
Short AUDCAD (considering taking on this also in the discretionary portfolio)
Long USDSEK
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Account equity as per today: USD 4473
Later FX-friends!
Sunday, 18 March 2012
Track record
Hi!
So, I have finally put a framework in place which makes it possible to do show you a daily track-record... It took some time, but it was definitely worth it... I will only do this for my algo-portfolio while my discretionary trading will be updated weekly. See graph below for the P/L in % since inception... Bear in mind that I show the the return as % as if I would have sized my position according to my own system, but in reality I have so far taken the same size at all times. I will see how I do in the future, but it will require quite some more work and a significantly bigger deposit.
In terms of dollar... Then the current reading: Algo: + USD 1391 Discr: + USD 841
It will be nice to follow the portfolios now when the monitoring is fully in place... I will update you once a week with the development in this chart - and expect volatility to continue...
Else, I was a bit unlucky to not get my long USDJPY out at 83.95 (traded at 83.94), hopefully that will change. I also promised to start trading other currencies than just Long USDJPY, I am considering to go long NOKSEK on the back of the recent set-back and my belief that Norway looks stronger than Sweden, but I am not sure yet.
Current positions:
Discr.
Long 2*USDJPY
Algo.
I will change position in USDSEK to a short position when the markets open, the others look like:
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Short AUDCAD
Short EURUSD
Good luck the coming week!
So, I have finally put a framework in place which makes it possible to do show you a daily track-record... It took some time, but it was definitely worth it... I will only do this for my algo-portfolio while my discretionary trading will be updated weekly. See graph below for the P/L in % since inception... Bear in mind that I show the the return as % as if I would have sized my position according to my own system, but in reality I have so far taken the same size at all times. I will see how I do in the future, but it will require quite some more work and a significantly bigger deposit.
In terms of dollar... Then the current reading: Algo: + USD 1391 Discr: + USD 841
It will be nice to follow the portfolios now when the monitoring is fully in place... I will update you once a week with the development in this chart - and expect volatility to continue...
Else, I was a bit unlucky to not get my long USDJPY out at 83.95 (traded at 83.94), hopefully that will change. I also promised to start trading other currencies than just Long USDJPY, I am considering to go long NOKSEK on the back of the recent set-back and my belief that Norway looks stronger than Sweden, but I am not sure yet.
Current positions:
Discr.
Long 2*USDJPY
Algo.
I will change position in USDSEK to a short position when the markets open, the others look like:
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Short AUDCAD
Short EURUSD
Good luck the coming week!
Thursday, 15 March 2012
illness
Hi folks,
what a week... It has been very interesting at work, I should maybe mention that I am involved in the management of a cross-asset mandate (Focusing on Fixed Income, Equties, FX and Credits) based on medium-term macro views... And eventhough I love FX, that is actually the smalles mandate. I don't want to say too much of this since this is not the scope of the blog, but I was lucky to buy some short-dated equity-options for 6 ticks this monday and with expiry tomorrow... They are now worth around 50 ticks, so it has been a lucky punt so far. But the annoying part is that I got sick yesterday, so I haven't been able to go to work today. Hopefully I feel OK tomorrow, I don't want to miss the option-expiry... :)
Ok, back to FX... The FOMC-statement came as expected so I reacted instantly and bought back my USDJPY at 82.87 and closed them the day after at 83.50. Lucky once again, the stronger-USD trend is really intact, but I feel it is time to be really prudent since the risk of a set-back is appearent. So, I have moved up my stop on the USDJPY position that I took on at 79.55 around a month ago to 80.40 (before 77.80, and then 79.70). So, that is atleast a given win as long as the slippage don't decide to take a monster-leap south. Else, I took on another position in USDJPY today at 83.36, doing a small punt again. Aiming for 83.95 and stop at 82.97. Thinking through my discretionary trading, I feel I need to diversify a bit, trading USDJPY is a bit to correlated to my algo. portfolio, and I can be much more creative than just trading one pair. That will be the taks for the weekend.
The development of the portfolio have been fantastic, and to be transparent to you so you really can trust my writing I decided to attach my Account equity as of yesteday... As you can see, almost USD 4600. :)
However, today is not as good and the account currently stands around USD 4200...
I had some time today to structure and produce a track-record of all my trades. I am now able for the first time to give you the current score of the competition...!
My discretionary trading is up USD 829
The algo. is up USD 1435
I will from now on do this update once a week, and I also expect to show you the graphs of the developments... When I have my new account up and running, I will deposit USD 10000. Out of these I think 4000 will be dedicated to my discretionaty trading and 6000 USD to the algos. So, in the end all that matters will be the percentage.
That is all for now, enjoy your w/e!
PS.
Algo. positions
Long USDSEK
Short EURUSD
Short AUDCAD
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Disc.
Long 2*USDJPY
what a week... It has been very interesting at work, I should maybe mention that I am involved in the management of a cross-asset mandate (Focusing on Fixed Income, Equties, FX and Credits) based on medium-term macro views... And eventhough I love FX, that is actually the smalles mandate. I don't want to say too much of this since this is not the scope of the blog, but I was lucky to buy some short-dated equity-options for 6 ticks this monday and with expiry tomorrow... They are now worth around 50 ticks, so it has been a lucky punt so far. But the annoying part is that I got sick yesterday, so I haven't been able to go to work today. Hopefully I feel OK tomorrow, I don't want to miss the option-expiry... :)
Ok, back to FX... The FOMC-statement came as expected so I reacted instantly and bought back my USDJPY at 82.87 and closed them the day after at 83.50. Lucky once again, the stronger-USD trend is really intact, but I feel it is time to be really prudent since the risk of a set-back is appearent. So, I have moved up my stop on the USDJPY position that I took on at 79.55 around a month ago to 80.40 (before 77.80, and then 79.70). So, that is atleast a given win as long as the slippage don't decide to take a monster-leap south. Else, I took on another position in USDJPY today at 83.36, doing a small punt again. Aiming for 83.95 and stop at 82.97. Thinking through my discretionary trading, I feel I need to diversify a bit, trading USDJPY is a bit to correlated to my algo. portfolio, and I can be much more creative than just trading one pair. That will be the taks for the weekend.
The development of the portfolio have been fantastic, and to be transparent to you so you really can trust my writing I decided to attach my Account equity as of yesteday... As you can see, almost USD 4600. :)
However, today is not as good and the account currently stands around USD 4200...
I had some time today to structure and produce a track-record of all my trades. I am now able for the first time to give you the current score of the competition...!
My discretionary trading is up USD 829
The algo. is up USD 1435
I will from now on do this update once a week, and I also expect to show you the graphs of the developments... When I have my new account up and running, I will deposit USD 10000. Out of these I think 4000 will be dedicated to my discretionaty trading and 6000 USD to the algos. So, in the end all that matters will be the percentage.
That is all for now, enjoy your w/e!
PS.
Algo. positions
Long USDSEK
Short EURUSD
Short AUDCAD
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Disc.
Long 2*USDJPY
Tuesday, 13 March 2012
FOMC
I have to write fast because the announcement is out in 10 minutes... :)
I yesterday had a short signal in GBPJPY at 128.691, which has cost money today and it looks like I will have a long signal again later today... This is a classical example of the whip-saw you need to live with when following a systematic model. On the bright side, I placed a buy-order in USDJPY overnight at 82.02 (stop 81.50 and target 82.95) which was hit. I decided to close that one hour ago at 82.68... I feel that markets has traded on stronger dollar into the FOMC-meeting this evening, and eventhough I am in that camp, I could easily see the market be a bit dissapointed and remove their longs. It is a relative war in the currency-markets, and all sovereigns want to have the weakest currency... So I believe Bernanke will acknowledge the strong marcro-development in US, but also try to play down the expectations.
We shall see in 3 minutes...
Discr.
Long USDJPY
Algo.
Short EURUSD
Short AUDCAD
Long USDSEK
Long USDJPY
Short GBPJPY
P/L down 100 dollar to 3950...
I yesterday had a short signal in GBPJPY at 128.691, which has cost money today and it looks like I will have a long signal again later today... This is a classical example of the whip-saw you need to live with when following a systematic model. On the bright side, I placed a buy-order in USDJPY overnight at 82.02 (stop 81.50 and target 82.95) which was hit. I decided to close that one hour ago at 82.68... I feel that markets has traded on stronger dollar into the FOMC-meeting this evening, and eventhough I am in that camp, I could easily see the market be a bit dissapointed and remove their longs. It is a relative war in the currency-markets, and all sovereigns want to have the weakest currency... So I believe Bernanke will acknowledge the strong marcro-development in US, but also try to play down the expectations.
We shall see in 3 minutes...
Discr.
Long USDJPY
Algo.
Short EURUSD
Short AUDCAD
Long USDSEK
Long USDJPY
Short GBPJPY
P/L down 100 dollar to 3950...
Sunday, 11 March 2012
Very lucky...!
Hello!
I hope you all have enjoyed a nice weekend, I have atleast... :) What a wonderful weather (and the dark and cold days feels far away for the moment)!
If you have have been following my positions going into Friday you could have guessed that it was a very lucky day for me. I managed to increased my account with USD 700, and now stand at a new all-time-high of USD 4043, I had never thought that a month ago. Up 106% on my initial deposit of 1960 USD, however, I know that it will come dark days as well so there is no need to get carried away. Marketwise, the last week when focusing on FX has been on stronger USD and weaker JPY, I believe that theme could continue (especially the weakning JPY). Which has been good for the discrenationary portfolio, the 3*USDJPY has been reduced to only 1*USDJPY after the targets of 81.46 and 82.50 was hit. The last position is a streategically long position, I will revise it if USDJPY hits 85. I will also try to find more positions to add if either we have a set-back in USDJPY, or adding other jpy-shorts. More to come during the week.
Short recap:
Discr.
Long 1*USDJPY
Algo
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Short EURUSD
Long USDSEK
Short AUDCAD
Until later dear trading-friends!
I hope you all have enjoyed a nice weekend, I have atleast... :) What a wonderful weather (and the dark and cold days feels far away for the moment)!
If you have have been following my positions going into Friday you could have guessed that it was a very lucky day for me. I managed to increased my account with USD 700, and now stand at a new all-time-high of USD 4043, I had never thought that a month ago. Up 106% on my initial deposit of 1960 USD, however, I know that it will come dark days as well so there is no need to get carried away. Marketwise, the last week when focusing on FX has been on stronger USD and weaker JPY, I believe that theme could continue (especially the weakning JPY). Which has been good for the discrenationary portfolio, the 3*USDJPY has been reduced to only 1*USDJPY after the targets of 81.46 and 82.50 was hit. The last position is a streategically long position, I will revise it if USDJPY hits 85. I will also try to find more positions to add if either we have a set-back in USDJPY, or adding other jpy-shorts. More to come during the week.
Short recap:
Discr.
Long 1*USDJPY
Algo
Long USDJPY
Long GBPJPY
Short EURUSD
Long USDSEK
Short AUDCAD
Until later dear trading-friends!
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